When writing our predictions for 2009, there is no way of avoiding relating my predictions to the new reality that has emerged due to the international financial crisis. At Strand Consult we make a living out of viewing events objectively, but on the other hand we are also realistic, so we know that the international recession that large parts of the world is currently experiencing will also influence an industry that primarily does business by delivering a basic service like good old-fashioned telephony – we are in a commodity industry.

An editorial by Strand Consult. The company analyses mobile markets and developments, publishes reports, conducts executive workshops, and helps telecoms industry participants focus on their business strategies. Strand Consult is based in Copenhagen, Denmark.

How will the mobile market develop in 2009? There will be some main trends that will dominate the 2009 mobile market. This will be the year where almost all the world’s mobile operators will primarily focus on mobile broadband. This market will grow, but competition may be so tough that it will result in very low prices in most markets. These low prices will result in operators over time having five choices of how to continue to do business. Reduce subscriber acquisition costs; reduce customers’ consumption; launch a number of premium products; bundle services with a mobile broadband product; or launch premium billing on mobile broadband.

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Ordinarily, the telecoms industry is much less associated with the theme of sustainability than many other so-called “heavy” industries such as energy, chemicals or automotive. An obvious explanation for this is that the telecoms industry is much less carbon-intensive, and consequently could be seen as greener. However, appearances can be deceptive

It is a mistake to equate “sustainability” with “green” – sustainability is more encompassing than green, comprising not only environmental issues but also social, marketplace and quality of life issues. As any telecoms executive can testify, the industry has to cope with plenty of sustainability issues, such as digital divide or inclusion, security, privacy and responsible content. Various initiatives have been undertaken in this regard, such as the Global e-Sustainability Initiative (GeSI), a partnership of information & communication technologies (ICT) companies that promotes technologies for a sustainable development.

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Africa Com 2008 was the event’s 11th annual outing in Cape Town, South Africa, celebrating industry developments across the continent. Having participated at 10 previous events as speaker, moderator or delegate, Michèle Scanlon, principal consultant of Green Giraffe Communications opened the conference with a brief synopsis of how quickly some developments have come to market, while in others cases, how slow things are to materialise

In 2000, prepaid roaming was a focal point of the  agenda of the annual African telecoms conference, then known as GSM Africa. Six years on in September 2006, Celtel (now Zain) launched its One Network in East Africa providing transparency of roaming charges as well as cross-border top-ups for prepaid customers. In August 2008, Zain extended its One Network to link all its properties in Africa and the Middle East, and competing products have emerged from other East African networks as well as a panregional service from MTN.

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SeaChange International is a provider of software applications, services and integrated solutions for the management and monetisation of video-on-demand (VOD), digital advertising, and content acquisition. The company recently attended GITEX in Dubai, believing the GCC region is ripe for the introduction of IPTV and real VOD services.

“Somebody else will offer video services over the top of your network, reducing you to being the dump pipe, and they will then command the relationship with the content owners and with the advertisers”

The initial market for SeaChange’s technology was in cable linear ad insertions, and that is a market which we command now and is very active because of high definition (HD) content, which is being inserted into cable networks.

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Booz&Co’s Ghassan Hasbani reviews the repercussions of the global economic crisis on telecoms operators in the Middle East.

The recent global markets crisis inevitably is set to impact the telecommunications sector in the region in one way or another. The extent of this impact is not likely to be drastic but nevertheless, it is worth trying to rationalise the situation rather than speculate.

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