When writing our predictions for 2009, there is no way of avoiding relating my predictions to the new reality that has emerged due to the international financial crisis. At Strand Consult we make a living out of viewing events objectively, but on the other hand we are also realistic, so we know that the international recession that large parts of the world is currently experiencing will also influence an industry that primarily does business by delivering a basic service like good old-fashioned telephony – we are in a commodity industry.

An editorial by Strand Consult. The company analyses mobile markets and developments, publishes reports, conducts executive workshops, and helps telecoms industry participants focus on their business strategies. Strand Consult is based in Copenhagen, Denmark.

How will the mobile market develop in 2009? There will be some main trends that will dominate the 2009 mobile market. This will be the year where almost all the world’s mobile operators will primarily focus on mobile broadband. This market will grow, but competition may be so tough that it will result in very low prices in most markets. These low prices will result in operators over time having five choices of how to continue to do business. Reduce subscriber acquisition costs; reduce customers’ consumption; launch a number of premium products; bundle services with a mobile broadband product; or launch premium billing on mobile broadband.

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When Roshan launched mobile services in Afghanistan in 2003, its goals extended beyond achieving a profit and satisfying shareholders. Today, the country’s leading GSM operator provides indirect employment to 25,000 citizens and takes a pioneering position in improving the development of economic, educational and social services. Proving it is possible to do ethically-sound business in Afghanistan and make a tangible social difference, CEO Karim Khoja shares how corporate social responsibility has not stood in the way of Roshan becoming a viable commercial operation. Michelle Mills reports

Just five years ago, if a local wanted to make a phone call in Afghanistan, he either used one of the 30,000 Thuraya satellite phones that were available and which cost US$12 per minute to use, or he walked to a neighbouring country,” recalls Roshan’s CEO Karim Khoja.

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The saying goes, “if it looks like a duck, swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck”. It seems to be apt in describing the state of price competition in Saudi Arabia’s mobile market. Despite operators in the kingdom suggesting the market is not in the throws of a price war, recent promotions point to an extremely price-competitive environment, which will impact ARPUs negatively. Michelle Mills reports

Zain Saudi Arabia launched commercial services as the  third mobile operator in Saudi Arabia on August 26, 2008 and in less than two months garnered 966,000 subscribers. Speaking at the GSM > 3G conference in Dubai in December, CEO Marwan Alahmadi said the operator’s unique ‘You pay we pay’ offer had been instrumental in attracting customers in a market with a SIM card penetration rate in excess of 100 per cent. The crux of the campaign was that whatever a customer spends in one month, the following month he receives the same amount back in free credit, with the lifetime offer available indefinitely for the first 500,000 customers.

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The viability of mobile resellers and virtual network operators in the Middle East continues to be questioned by analysts, though answers are imminent given the impending launch of commercial MVNOs in Oman during the course of Q109. Majan Telecom and Friendi Mobile are the two companies entrusted with proving the business model for MVNOs in the region, and while he remains guarded about the finer points of his company’s market entry strategy, Majan Telecom’s CEO, Niklas Nielsen outlines how his organisation is set to do something never before seen in this part of the world

Niklas Nielsen is confident the MVNO business model will be vindicated in Oman, though he questions the market’s ability to support more than two resellers

Both Class II reseller licensees in Oman know it – being first to market will drastically improve either company’s prospects for success. As a consequence of this, both Majan Telecom and Friendi Mobile are working frantically behind the scenes to ensure their brand name, offering, and association with the latest business proposition to launch in the region since 3G services, hits the market first.

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The timing of the depressed global economic outlook could not have come at a worse time for Alcatel-Lucent. The situation only confounds further the technology company’s efforts to turn the corner of a post-merger era that has resulted in an underperforming share price and integration challenges. With a new CEO, a new strategy, and a strong focus on technology leadership, Alcatel-Lucent is looking to emerge from the economic downturn a leaner, more responsive and cohesive organisation than before

Alcatel-Lucent’s new CEO, Ben Verwaayen has a cool, approachable demeanour that his predecessor at the French/American technology company never had. Even Alcatel Lucent employees openly talk about the impression of hardness and rigidity they associated with former CEO Patricia Russo, who tried and failed to have the many different cultures, nationalities and operations that comprise the merged Alcatel-Lucent pull in the same direction.

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